Lies and Statistics

We had another batch of torrential rain yesterday. Some local street flooding in our community. We have a few built-up areas where the drainage is poor, so water accumulates on the street. When I was heading out for my weekly stint at the Citizen’s Police Academy, I was driving along the parkway at a pretty decent speed. I had one of those sinking feelings (no pun intended) when I realized that the dip in the road in front of me was completely covered in water. All I could do was grip the steering wheel to make sure it wasn’t wrested from my grasp and go wherever my forward momentum took me. I remembered kidding my wife earlier in the day about how hydroplaning alleviated wear-and-tear on your tires. All of a sudden it wasn’t so funny any more.

Survived, though, without mishap. About 10 minutes later I got into another deluge, one of those everything-soaking cascades, like driving under Niagara Falls. Couldn’t see shit for about 15 miles. Then I drove out of it and the highway wasn’t even wet. I think the rainy season is over for now. It’s supposed to be back up to 80-something this weekend. This has reportedly been the third or fourth wettest Octobers on record for our area.

Next weekend is World Fantasy in Austin. My first trip to that city, which my wife finds hard to believe after living in southeast Texas for 17 years. Probably won’t see much of Austin in the process, either, since the conference is on the north end of the outskirts of the city. Looking forward to meeting some folks who I’ve corresponded with but have never seen face-to-face, as well as those who I have. I found someone to share quarters with a few weeks ago, another person who I only know in the virtual sense. I never see the point in spending $150 a night for a hotel room when I’m unconscious for most of the time I’m in it.

Last night’s police academy session was about how the police detect deception during interviews and interrogations. Fascinating stuff. Something I found intriguing is the way our eyes work when we’re trying to remember something. Statistically, he said, people tend to look upward when trying to recall something we’ve seen, look in a neutral-forward direction when we try to remember something we’ve heard (a conversation, a radio station) and look downward when trying to remember how we felt about something. The lecturer had all sorts of great case studies, many taken from TV interviews of suspects (on 60 Minutes, etc.) in which the suspects exhibited classic reveals of deception.

A lot of it has to do with consistent behavior. People are nervous when being interviewed by the police, guilty or not. The trick is to determine their normal behavior under these circumstances and then identify when this behavior changes if they’re asked intrusive, invasive questions. The story I’m working on right now has someone who is a good liar in it, so I can now go back and insert some of these subtle tells. This is the kind of detail that many readers won’t get or notice, but some might and will find the experience enhanced. Like “easter eggs”—hidden content.

One of his funny observations: liars suddenly become covered with lint! When they want to be evasive, they will find an endless source of lint to pick from their clothing.

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